Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 14.338082 17.496778 21.026010 25.238164 30.104087 35.523990 41.991723
2025-03-23 10.041107 14.173280 19.319690 26.094024 34.660575 45.012302 58.333615
2025-03-30 7.229266 11.521801 17.360262 25.652897 36.871083 51.244956 70.740660
2025-04-06 5.951669 10.481784 17.095257 27.059793 41.241487 60.209517 86.923568
2025-04-13 4.209354 8.294107 14.739691 25.081119 40.593764 62.263618 93.945972
2025-04-20 3.447384 7.459012 14.203445 25.575993 43.341926 68.988722 107.543277
2025-04-27 2.899302 6.850397 13.892907 26.311166 46.416884 76.280025 122.253716
2025-05-04 2.496826 6.409276 13.769869 27.283919 49.868638 84.259483 138.302984
2025-05-11 2.109793 5.897912 13.423980 27.804395 52.588693 91.240411 153.175596
2025-05-18 1.716523 5.264546 12.735130 27.615543 54.083499 96.368770 165.461292
2025-05-25 1.327480 4.521494 11.692965 26.633935 54.114356 99.140014 174.212525
2025-06-01 1.065041 4.008001 11.022105 26.243130 55.086730 103.407752 185.406002
2025-06-08 0.745172 3.240805 9.711039 24.560147 53.852876 104.395312 192.169697
2025-06-15 0.628263 3.034318 9.652881 25.436573 57.426225 113.712954 212.959358
2025-06-22 0.475716 2.632330 9.024807 25.007104 58.477390 118.764807 226.997850
2025-06-29 0.420499 2.556421 9.214085 26.385778 63.118927 130.285450 252.259766
2025-07-06 0.275506 2.022622 8.025679 24.447156 60.988838 129.673598 257.035440
2025-07-13 0.224679 1.868687 7.879152 24.931961 63.801363 138.083625 277.549586
2025-07-20 0.187591 1.756953 7.833176 25.652245 67.150725 147.632611 300.404287
2025-07-27 0.160380 1.679603 7.878417 26.605419 71.059069 158.397142 325.784049
2025-08-03 0.130940 1.562302 7.760369 27.115476 74.036300 167.536800 348.615455
2025-08-10 0.098905 1.390590 7.402435 26.930400 75.453532 173.754596 366.444460
2025-08-17 0.067402 1.172825 6.799377 25.968502 75.022032 176.349131 377.801024